A mathematician and former graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley set out to build a roulette-beating system (illustrated) based on a small window before bets are called. Link to the casino and the spreadsheet: roulette strategy, roulette strategy 2019, roulette strategy to win, roulette system, bes.
If you are planning to play at roulette online with real money, it is imperative that you become familiar with the probability of winning in a game. Hence, you must know how the Roulette probability calculator works. This is particularly important for roulette because each bet has a specific mathematical winning probability. The odds are impacted by the kind of roulette you will play and the rules applicable to it.
In this article, you will find the most asked questions about calculating the winning probability in a roulette online game.
You must also know that there is the gambler's illusion: Red or Black? Casinos promote this illusion. That is why casinos show the statistics of past spins. Those statistics do not have a practical value, and they cannot be used as a guide to predict upcoming numbers and their colours. The roulette novices must know that each number is on a specific colour.
There are answers to important questions that are asked about roulette, which you must also take note of.
How to Calculate Probability in Roulette?
The roulette wheel has 37 equally sized spaces. Since this is the case, the ball will most likely land equally in any space. That means a roulette's probability distribution is equal. This is different from American roulette probability because their wheel has 38 spaces.
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- Since there are 37 spaces, the probability of a ball landing on one of them is 1/37.
- There are 18 red spaces 18, so the chance of a ball landing on a red is 18/37.
- The black or green spaces equal 20, so the probability that the ball will not land on red is 20/37.
If you bet 1€ on red, and the ball lands on red, you will win it back, and the amount is doubled, so you profit 1€. If you bet 2€ on red, but the ball lands on green or black, you will lose your bet (-2).
Here, 'A' is used as the variable for the calculation to represent your winnings in roulette from red that takes the value of 2€. The probability is 18/37 and will take the -2 value with 20/37 probability. Here is how you should do the roulette probability formula:
P(Red) x A (value for red) + P(Not red) x A (value that is not red) = 18/37 + 2 + 20/37x (-1) = 0.4865.
Interpreting the results of the probability roulette calculator:
You must remember that the expected value's meaning is used to interpret the results. The value you can expect is like the average measurement. It is an indication of what will happen each time you bet 2€.
Even if you win multiple times consecutively, you will averagely lose 5 cents in the long run while you play. The house advantage comes from the 0 and 00. This is a very small advantage, making it hard to detect, but the house will always win at the end of your game.
You must know that the true odds represent the probability of roulette outcome, rather than the possibility. However, the casino is not going to pay out winnings based on true odds. The winning bets are paid using the 1:35 odds, and the even money wagers have a 1:1 payout. This is because of that one zero pocket.
What is the Probability of Winning at a Roulette Wheel?
These bets are quite different, and they are exclusive to French/European roulette only. The numbers in this wheel are combined based on the roulette wheel's position instead of the table. There are two kinds – fixed and variable.
Zero's neighbours – These are bets that cover 17 numbers, and all of those are near green zero. You would have to put at least nine chips so that all those numbers are covered, and you will have winning odds of 45.9%. There is no fixed payout, and it can be as high as 24:1, which depends on the number that wins. This is also called 'the grand series.'
Wheel thirds – These are the 12 numbers that are directly situated from across neighbours of Zero. This has a probability of 32.4%, with a payout that is set at 17:1. This is quite like dozen/column bets when it comes to the odd terms and payout.
Zero Game – This is a smaller version of neighbours of Zero. It covers only seven numbers that are closest to slot green zero. There is an 18.9% bet winning odds here, and the payout could be up to 26:1.
The Orphans – The bet that covers the remaining numbers that were not yet mentioned. There is a 21.6% chance of winning this bet, and payouts can be 35:1 or 17:1.
These are fixed call bets. Your variables here are the neighbours where you will place bets on five neighbouring numbers, and your winnings are at 13.5%. The remaining variable is called the ‘finals' where your bet is on the last digit. Based on the numbers, there is an 8.1% and 10.8% probability.
The European table only contains one zero, and this is a big difference to players. European roulette odds have better odds since there is only one pocket that could make the round fail. That also means there is a smaller house edge in a European roulette compared to American roulette that has 0 and 00.
Some roulette games in Europe have more rules that are more helpful to the player in beating the house edge. If a casino is offering a la partage, that means you are only using half of your even money bet in case the ball lands in zero. The probability of winning a roulette wheel cannot really be predicted because the previous sequences do not impact the current one.
What is the Highest Roulette Odds Probability?
You only have one chance of winning and 37 ways of losing the bet. That means your probabilities in roulette odds are 37 to one, and this makes it a thrill. Calculate odds with roulette odds calculator online.
In order to understand this in terms of money, you must realize that the winner's payoff is not 36:1 roulette odds because it will be a fair game. It is rather 35:1. The casino will short you out by two units because the casino will not make a profit if it pays odds fairly. Thirty-six will be divided into two and times 100 to reveal a house edge of 5.26%. Hence, roulette odds do not reflect actual roulette payouts. If you check a roulette probability chart, you will see the probability for each set of numbers.
Odds for Success:
–Even, odd, black, red, 1-18, and 19-36 all have a probability of 48.6% if the payout is 1:1.
–1-12, 13-24, and 25-36 have a probability of 32.4% if the payout is 2:1.
–Single number with a payout of 35:1 have a probability of 2.7%.
–Two numbers with a 17:1 payout have a 5.4% probability.
–Three-number combo with an 11:1 payout has an 8.1% probability.
–Four-number combo with an 8:1 payout has a 10.8% probability.
–Six-number combo with a 5:1 payout has a probability of 16.2%.
You can use these statistics when you try the roulette wheel probability calculator, but it does not guarantee anything.
How to Use Probability When Playing Roulette?
You can beat roulette by improving the probability of your odds. Roulette is famous for being a tricky game, and that is because of the huge house edge it has. There is no solution to how you can win roulette each time it spins. However, if you want to maximize your winning potential, you would have to use the odds wisely. Even if it is really based on luck, you can do a couple of things to increase your chances of winning a nice payout.
You must know your odds
The odds that are placed in bets vary greatly, so if you want to maximize your bankroll, you need to know your odds.
If you use a probability roulette wheel in a game, you can find out if you can beat the math in your game.
A system could combine the playing and money management strategy. If you have enough bankroll, you can increase your chance of winning by doubling your bet after each loss, and you will not reach the table limit, which you can easily do. However, this is not really a guarantee.
Whatever your strategy is, they could suffer in the same way. Assuming all wheel numbers have the same probability, which means there is no bias. The math would mean the casino always wins. The system might look great, and it works short term, but if it lands on a number you did not bet on, you are going to lose. The casino will move to winning with a house edge of 2.7% or 5.26%.
There are systems that involve betting on a lot of numbers, like 20. If this is the case, you will win more often because you are betting on most of the numbers. However, if none of them turn up, you will lose all bets. This could wipe out your wins.
What is the Probability of Red in Roulette?
If the ball lands on red, you win 1€. Then, the next step is to bet 1€ on black. Always change the colour when you win. If it's black, you will lose the first 1€. Then bet 2€ on red. If you lose, you stay in red and double your bet until you win. For instance, losing 1€, you must bet 2€ on red; if you lose again, bet 4€; another loss, bet 8€ on red. When you win, change to black and bet 1€.
If zero comes up, which rarely happens, you lose your 1€. Then, bet 2€ on red again, and keep doing this until you win before you can change colour.
There are 37 numbers on the wheel. There are 18 blacks and 18 reds. Therefore, the winning odds of red are 18/37, which is 0.4865. The odds of black are the same. The same goes for any 'even chance' bet that includes highs and lows, and evens and odds. The odds are not changing, no matter how many times red or black have appeared in a row. Consider your loss when you bet on black. What you do not realize is that the odds of red or black coming up is not affected by any sequence. This is the case in all losing roulette online game.
The calculation is very simple. There are no changes except for the amount that you made a bet on. You are either lucky, and you could win back what you lost, or lose it all. The casino owner does not care if you win because they know there is always a loser in every win. If you think about it, there are more losses than wins.
What is the Probability of Black in Roulette?
Since each spin is a new event, black can come up with the same probability as red anytime during the play, no matter how many times each colour wins. Particularly with European roulette where there are 18 blacks, 18 reds, one zero.American roulette has two zeros, which is not good for your winning chances. Hence, the probability of black is 18/37 = 0.4765 or 48.65%.
Black and red have the same probability, which seems paradoxical, and it is expected that the colour changes fast. It could be from a probability point that it is senseless to assume the colour that has not won for a long time could most likely appear now.
American vs. European Roulette
Anyone who is trying to figure out the difference between American and European roulette must understand the double and single zeros, watch roulette rules in 6 min video. The American version has double zeros. In the European roulette, the croupier spins the reel with 37 pockets, and the small ball falls into one when the spinning stops. Any number on the wheel has an odds of 35/1, and if you succeed, you earn your bet back. That means the house edge is 2.7% and the RTP rate is 97.3%
The American roulette wheel is the same, but it has an extra pocket – double zero. The same principle is applicable when you bet on a pocket the ball falls into, and each number has an odds of 35/1. Your stake is given back to you if your bet succeeds. However, even if the odds are the same, your chance of succeeding becomes less because of the extra pocket. Hence, the house edge is 5.26%, and the RTP is 94.74%. Therefore, you have a bigger chance of winning if you play European roulette.
The House Edge Difference
Even if there is only a subtle difference, and it may look irrelevant, it has a huge impact on how your games will turn out.
When there are lower odds, there are bigger payouts. However, as logical as it may be, it is not the same with American roulette. Even if the odds are lower, if you bet on a winning number, you will also get paid 35:1, which is the same in European roulette.
The Return to Player (RTP) Percentage
In roulette, it is essential to take note that this is theoretical because it is based on what is returned to a player on hundreds of spins, and all kinds of bets are available.
You could get great results by just spinning a few lucky spins, or you might not win at all. Players who focus on making Even Money bets such as Black or Red receive more winning bets compared to players who just choose their favourites. However, the odds are only suggesting that.
If you want to consistently win in roulette, you must not base your chances on the sequences and patterns. It is sensible to see 1,2,3 spinning patterns, but that is not different from 31,8,15 spinning. The betting progression does not change except for the amount. You can only beat roulette if you can change the winning odds. You must also take note of the differences between American and European roulette because it can greatly affect your winning chances. Therefore, it is important to know how the Roulette probability calculator works.
Roulette wheel has 37 fields (American one – 38). So, the probability of hitting one of them is 1/37 or 2.7%.
Your winning probability may vary depending on your chosen bet type. If you would decide to pick only one number then you would have 2.7% chance of winning. However, if you would go for a Red/Black bet then you would have a 48.6% chance of winning and so on.
If you would go for Even/Odd, Red/Black or Low/High bets then a probability of hitting is – 48.6%, Column and Dozen bets has a 32.4% probability of winning and a bet on a Single Number has a 2.7% chance of winning.
American roulette has 38 fields instead of 37 (additional 00). As a result, your chances of winning become lower.
Roulette is a game of luck after all and in the end casino will win. Always be aware and gamble only with money you can afford to lose.
Red/Black, Even/Odd and Low/High bets has a highest chance of winning – 48.6%.
A bet on a single number has the lowest chance of winning – 2.7%. However, it has the highest payout – 35 to 1.
Gamblers have been trying to overcome the house edge in roulette for centuries. Most of them have met little to no success.
But some of them have succeeded.
Some of them even learned how to predict the numbers when playing roulette.
That might be the best way to beat the game, in fact. After all, if you know which number is going to come up, you can guarantee that you'll win your next bet.
1- Developing Your Innate Psychic Powers
I don't believe in psychic powers, but I understand that some of my readers do believe. In fact, I have a close friend who's a phone psychic, and he's convinced that he really has 'the gift.'
I just don't think anyone has ever provided any convincing evidence of precognition in anything like a controlled setting.
But if you want to develop psychic powers to beat roulette, here are some tips I've found:
- Visualize your third eye.
- Meditate.
- Pray.
My yoga teacher has me do this during our sessions. I don't think it's helped me with predicting the future, although the longer I'm sober, the better able to predict the future I become.
The idea is that your third eye is what's going to be able to see the energy fields surrounding everything and help you predict the future.
I'm a big fan of meditation because it has benefits that are entirely separate from trying to be able to tell the future. Meditation can help you lower stress, and it can help you be more present. It's not hard to do, either. Start small and work your way up.
Some people firmly believe that by increasing their connection with God or the universe, they're able to tap into intuition that isn't available to other people who are cut off from the source.
Prayer and meditation put you in touch with the source of everything, which, in turn, enables you to predict the future with more accuracy.
How you pray and meditate is, of course, up to you.
But I don't know anyone who claims to have psychic powers who isn't praying and/or meditating on a regular basis.
2- Watching the Dealer
Do some roulette dealers hit specific numbers more often than other numbers because of their dealing habits?
If you could spot some kind of croupier tell or dealer signature in roulette, you could clean up.
Realistically speaking, though, dealers can't force the ball to land on a specific number. That's just not a realistic feat.
But you don't need them to hit the same number repeatedly. You just need to know which section of the wheel the ball is most likely to land in. If you know that, you can bet all the numbers in that section and win more often than probability would lead you to win.
And you don't even need a huge change in probability to make this worthwhile.
Most experts agree that so-called 'sector slicing' isn't a realistic way to predict even a subset of roulette numbers, but let's look at the math of why that would be great if you could pull it off.
When you place a single number bet, you have a 1/38 probability of winning that bet. The payoff is 35 to 1, so the casino has an obvious edge.
But if the probability of landing on some numbers is better, say 1/34 instead of 1/38, then the edge tilts away from the casino and toward the player.
It's possible, though, that a dealer lands in a specific section of the wheel more often than usual without even knowing it. After all, this is all muscle memory for the croupier. He releases that metal ball into action at a specific speed and at a specific time.
You might even want to track how far away from the release point the ball usually lands. Let's say that the ball always lands 10 or 14 numbers away from where it's released. You'd have a huge advantage being able to bet on those 10 or 14 numbers, even though the actual numbers would change every game.
3- Watching the Ball and the Wheel Closely
Twenty years ago, you could find numerous books and articles about how you could predict approximately where the ball will land just based on looking at it. Such a strategy isn't widespread anymore, but is it possible?
First of all, you'd need to be able to gauge the speed of the ball and the speed of the roulette wheel. I'm not sure if you've spent much time at a roulette table, but just the idea of trying to do that boggles my mind.
The speed of the wheel is probably more important than the speed of the ball, but both matter. You also need to keep in mind that the ball is going to bounce around a little bit before falling into a numbered pocket.
Practically speaking, this strategy works like the dealer signature strategy. Only instead of looking for a trend unique to that dealer, you're just watching the ball and the wheel and placing your bets quickly on what you predict based on the ball speed and wheel speed.
This might be worth a try, but I still wouldn't gamble money I needed for other purposes on this approach.
4- Using a Device
Using a computer to predict where the ball will land in a roulette game is considered cheating. In Nevada, that's a felony. You do NOT want to get caught doing this.
In fact, I recommend against even trying this. There are easier ways to get an edge when gambling that don't involve the risk of going to jail.
But gamblers have used roulette computers to beat the game. Such a computer works like a radar gun that a highway patrolman uses – it tracks the speed of the ball. It also analyzes angles and predicts where the ball will land.
As with the other methods mentioned already, you're going to bet on multiple numbers at once, not just one number.
Even a computer can't predict a specific number with any kind of accuracy.
5 – Determining the Bias of a Wheel
It's not just dealers that have a bias. Some wheels are imperfect, and they might have a bias toward and against specific numbers, too.
To find a biased wheel, you would need to track the results for at least 1000 spins. Even then, the margin of error could be significant. In any small set of random occurrences, some are going to deviate from what probability predicts.
That's deviation, not bias.
A better approach might be to try to track 10,000 spins.
But you'll run into a couple of problems with this advantage technique:
- The first is that you might spend all this time 'clocking' a roulette wheel only to find that there's no bias at all. Then you've just wasted your time.
- The second is that even if you find a roulette wheel you're convinced has enough of a bias to make it worth your while, that wheel might move or be replaced at any time.
Finding a biased roulette wheel sounds like a great advantage strategy in theory.
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But in real life, it isn't practical at all.
6- Embrace the Gambler's Fallacy
I can promise this technique for predicting the next roulette number won't work, but we'll talk about it anyway.
The Gambler's Fallacy is when you believe that the probability of something that's going to happen has somehow been affected by what's already happened.
We know that it's unlikely to get a red result eight times in a row on a roulette wheel. If the ball has landed on red seven times in a row, we might predict that the ball is surely going to land on black on the next spin.
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Mathematically, that isn't true.
But you might embrace it anyway and try to use that to inform your betting decisions.
It won't help in the long run, but it's as useful as any other strategy.
7- How to Predict the Next Roulette Outcome With 100% Accuracy
If you could tell your friend that you could predict that the ball will land in a specific number set, how could you be sure that you were correct 100% of the time?
Just predict that the ball will land on either a 0, a 00, or the numbers 1 through 36.
You could even bet on all those numbers, but if you did, you'd lose money consistently and repeatedly because of the house edge.
Conclusion
There are seven ways to predict roulette numbers. I'm not confident that you can use any of these methods consistently to win money in a modern casino but give any or all of them a try.
Well, except for the computer.
If you see some success – or even if you don't – share your experiences in the comments.
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